Thanks for coming up with a Nice Baby Yoda Face Mask Dave And Busters Shirt reasonable writeup with an actual plan. The issue I see is the liquidity and more specifically the spreads. The ATM bid/ask for both puts and calls is well over a dollar wide. Hard to get good fills both on the way in and the way out. There’s not much volume on PLAY and IV is insanely high. I agree it will go down again but still seems risky to me. Sucks were the same as APRNs. Looked at the prices and “oh” ‘d my way out. That’s what the Greeks etc are for. If you could deduce the actual value of the option you’d never make a wrong move. It all comes down to your personal risk tolerance and sense of the market.
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But you can look at IV specifically, high IV comes with high premiums. The Nice Baby Yoda Face Mask Dave And Busters Shirt d&b IV was like over 400% when I looked at some strikes earlier. In comparison, SPY puts were like 70-120% which is still considered extremely high. Whether that’s overpriced is up to you – if you are sure it’s going to drop and you are going to time everything right then maybe it’s a fair price for you. Yes, but then you lose the ability to close the position if the price moves in the wrong direction. If the option is liquid, you might be able to quickly act and minimize your losses. Another issue is that you can’t exit when you hit, say, 50% of the maximum possible gain, an exit strategy that increases your probability of success relative to waiting for the maximum gain.
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TL;DR: It is like getting in a car and throwing the steering wheel out of the Nice Baby Yoda Face Mask Dave And Busters Shirt window, and hoping that you don’t need it. Why did you buy a PLAY puts? If it was because of this post and you’re a newer option trader, just be careful being loose with your plays based on a Reddit post that seems unique and different from what everyone else is doing. I know the feeling. You want that edge. You want that quiet tip that feels like you’re in the know. You read a comment, it sounds logical, it seems like an outside the box play, and it’s cheaper to enter. You toss money at it because it seems like a low risk/high reward gamble. Most of us have been there. Just be careful if you’re new.
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